US natgas prices edge up on forecast rise in LNG feedgas when Cove Point returns
By Scott DiSavino
Oct 11 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Thursday on lower output and a forecast increase in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants with the Cove Point facility in Maryland expected back soon.
That small price increase came even though power generators were burning less gas after Hurricane Milton knocked out power to millions of homes and businesses in Florida on Wednesday-Thursday.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 1.2 cents, or 0.5%, to $2.687 per million British thermal units at 8:04 a.m. EDT (1204 GMT).
For the week, the contract was down about 5% after sliding about 2% last week.
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to 101.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 101.8 bcfd in September. That compares with a record 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.
That is because many producers reduced their drilling activities so far this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low in March. Prices have remained relatively low since then.
Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states will remain mostly milder than normal through at least Oct. 26. But even though the weather will be mild, it is still turning seasonally cooler with the coming of winter.
With the seasonally cooler weather, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 96.2 bcfd this week to 96.8 bcfd next week and 98.2 bcfd in two weeks.
The demand forecasts for this week and next were similar to LSEG's outlook on Thursday.
Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants slid to an average of 12.4 bcfd so far in October, down from 12.7 bcfd in September. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
That reduction was due mostly to the planned Sept. 20 shutdown of Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-bcfd Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland for around three weeks of annual maintenance.
That Cove Point outage could end soon. The company told customers it was seeking to purchase gas on Oct. 11.
HURRICANE MILTON
Hurricane Milton slammed into the west coast of Florida as a major storm Wednesday night and swept across the central part of the state on Thursday. The storm has now dissipated in the Atlantic Ocean.
There were still around 2.4 million customers without power in Florida from Milton on Friday, down from a high of around 3.4 million on Thursday.
There were also still about 78,000 customers without power in North Carolina and Georgia after Hurricane Helene moved inland after hitting Florida on Sept. 26.
In 2023, power generators in Florida burned a record 3.9 bcfd of gas to keep the lights on for the state's roughly 11.5 million power customers, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and PowerOutage.us.
That means every 1 million customer outages reduces the need to burn around 0.3 bcfd of gas on average.
Week ended Oct 11 Forecast | Week ended Oct 4 Actual | Year ago Oct 11 | Five-year average Oct 11 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +68 | +82 | +93 | +89 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,697 | 3,629 | 3,598 | 3,542 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 4.4% | 5.1% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.70 | 2.68 | 3.15 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 12.76 | 12.84 | 14.55 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 13.08 | 13.07 | 16.30 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 112 | 99 | 107 | 105 | 140 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 50 | 54 | 41 | 58 | 40 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 162 | 153 | 148 | 163 | 180 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 101.7 | 101.3 | 101.4 | 103.1 | 96.8 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.6 | 8.0 | 7.5 | N/A | 7.1 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 109.3 | 109.3 | 109.0 | N/A | 103.9 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.6 | 6.8 | 6.7 | N/A | 5.9 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 12.0 | 12.4 | 12.9 | 13.4 | 10.0 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.9 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 6.9 |
U.S. Residential | 4.1 | 4.8 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 7.3 |
U.S. Power Plant | 36.8 | 35.8 | 31.7 | 30.8 | 30.9 |
U.S. Industrial | 21.8 | 22.1 | 22.5 | 22.3 | 22.3 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 74.8 | 75.0 | 75.3 | 72.9 | 74.5 |
Total U.S. Demand | 95.4 | 96.2 | 96.8 | N/A | 92.7 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 93 | 93 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 88 | 86 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 89 | 87 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Oct 11 | Week ended Oct 4 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | 8 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 44 | 45 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | 17 | 16 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.26 | 2.43 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.46 | 1.75 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 4.26 | 4.30 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.39 | 1.61 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.15 | 2.25 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.63 | 2.10 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.99 | 3.08 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 0.28 | 2.25 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.20 | 1.29 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 39.50 | 39.50 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 34.25 | 34.25 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 28.00 | 28.00 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 68.60 | 68.60 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 52.00 | 52.00 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 48.75 | 48.75 |
Reporting by Scott DiSavino;Editing by Elaine Hardcastle
For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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