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US natgas prices edge up 1% on higher demand, ahead of storage report



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By Scott DiSavino

Oct 17 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Thursday on forecasts for higher demand next week than previously expected.

The small price move came ahead of a federal report expected to show that utilities last week added less gas to storage than usual for a 13th week in a row.

That's because many producers reduced drilling activities earlier this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low in March. Prices have remained relatively low since then.

Analysts forecast U.S. utilities added 77 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Oct. 11. That compares with an increase of 93 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2019-2023) average rise of 89 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

If correct, that will leave gas stocks about 5% above normal for this time of year.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.1 cents, or 0.9%, to $2.388 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT). On Wednesday, the contract closed at its lowest since Sept. 19.

Despite the small gain the front-month was on track to remain in technically oversold territory for a second day in a row for the first time since July.

In the spot market, pipeline constraints caused next-day gas prices at the Waha hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in the Permian Shale in West Texas to remain in negative territory for a second day in a row for Thursday and a record 38th time this year.

Until this week, Waha prices had remained in positive territory since mid September - just after the Matterhorn pipeline from the Permian to the Houston area started receiving gas.

Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. It happened 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020 and once in 2023.


SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slipped to 101.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 101.8 bcfd in September. That compares with a record 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.

Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states will remain mostly warmer than normal through Nov. 1.

LSEG forecast that unseasonably warm weather would cause average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, to slide from 98.1 bcfd this week to 96.4 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.

The amount of gas flowing to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 13.0 bcfd so far in October, up from 12.7 bcfd in September. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.

On a daily basis, LNG feedgas hit an eight-month high of 14.3 bcfd on Wednesday.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global prices feed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Gas prices were trading around $13 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia JKMc1. NG/EU

Week ended Oct 11 Forecast

Week ended Oct 4 Actual

Year ago Oct 11

Five-year average

Oct 11

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+77

+82

+93

+89

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

3,706

3,629

3,598

3,542

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

4.6%

5.1%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2023

Five-Year Average (2018-2022)

Henry Hub NGc1

2.37

2.37

3.15

2.66

3.60

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

12.67

12.57

14.55

13.04

14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

13.47

13.61

16.30

14.39

14.31

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

115

130

106

137

168

U.S. GFS CDDs

37

33

45

44

31

U.S. GFS TDDs

152

163

151

181

199

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

101.3

101.5

101.3

103.7

96.8

U.S. Imports from Canada

8.0

8.2

7.4

N/A

7.1

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total U.S. Supply

109.3

109.7

108.7

N/A

103.9

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

1.9

1.9

1.9

N/A

2.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico

6.5

6.6

6.6

N/A

5.9

U.S. LNG Exports

12.4

13.6

14.1

14.3

10.0

U.S. Commercial

5.3

6.7

6.5

6.8

6.9

U.S. Residential

4.8

7.6

7.2

7.8

7.3

U.S. Power Plant

35.5

31.8

30.7

21.4

30.9

U.S. Industrial

22.1

22.7

22.4

22.6

22.3

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total U.S. Consumption

74.8

76.0

73.9

65.7

74.5

Total U.S. Demand

95.7

98.1

96.4

N/A

92.7

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam

2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast

2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2024

% of Normal Actual

2023 % of Normal Actual

2022

% of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

93

92

74

83

107

Jan-Jul

88

87

76

77

102

Oct-Sep

86

86

77

76

103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Oct 18

Week ended Oct 11

2023

2022

2021

Wind

11

9

10

11

10

Solar

6

6

4

3

3

Hydro

5

5

6

6

7

Other

2

2

2

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

41

44

41

38

37

Coal

16

16

17

21

23

Nuclear

18

18

19

19

20

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

2.21

2.37

Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

1.19

2.05

PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

4.21

4.30

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

1.74

1.86

Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

2.06

2.06

Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

2.11

2.25

SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

2.40

2.31

Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

-0.05

-0.81

AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

1.04

0.96

SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL

43.75

45.50

PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL

43.25

49.25

Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL

14.50

18.50

Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL

38.00

38.06

Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL

29.00

32.00

SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL

28.00

30.75



Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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