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Reuters - 47分钟前

FX options wrap - Pricing FX calm before US election storm

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Pricing FX calm before US election storm Price action in FX options reinforces the outlook that there's little to excite FX markets before the U.S. election, but plenty of risks to hedge in its wake. The recent/current lack of FX realised volatility is weighing on implied volatility, especially for options that expire prior to the U.S.
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Reuters - 7小时前

Cheap USD/JPY options to hedge major event risks

BUZZ-COMMENT-Cheap USD/JPY options to hedge major event risks Oct 18 (Reuters) - A lack of FX realised volatility has reduced the price of USD/JPY option premiums, which are almost screaming value ahead of some major event risks. FX options thrive on FX volatility, which is an unknown quantity but a key parameter for the premium. Dealers therefore use implied volatility, which is basically their best guess.
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Reuters - 18小时前

US dollar buoyed by retail sales data, euro falls as more cuts underway

REFILE-FOREX-US dollar buoyed by retail sales data, euro falls as more cuts underway Removes extraneous euro rate in 10th paragraph US dollar index hits fresh 11-week high US retail sales rise in September ECB cuts rates for 3rd time this year US rate future price in 44 bps of cuts this year By Karen Brettell and Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK, Oct 17 (Reuters) - The U.S.
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Reuters - 19小时前

US recap: EUR/USD slides after ECB cut, dour outlook

BUZZ-COMMENT-US recap: EUR/USD slides after ECB cut, dour outlook USD/JPY holds above 150 on Goldilocks view AUD/USD -Longs hold onto gains despite US data results Oct 17 (Reuters) - The dollar rose to a fresh 11-week high on Thursday after a batch of economic data showed a U.S. economy that remains resilient. U.S retail sales rose an above-forecast 0.4% in September, weekly jobless claims fell, October’s Philadelphia Fed index beat the median estimate and the NAHB homebuilder index edged up i
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Reuters - 1天前

Dollar jumps as retail sales confirm strong US economy

FOREX-Dollar jumps as retail sales confirm strong US economy Updated at 10:00 EDT By Karen Brettell NEW YORK, Oct 17 (Reuters) - The dollar jumped to an 11-week high on Thursday after data showed that U.S. retail sales increased slightly more than expected in September, boosting confidence that the U.S. economy remains strong. It followed a relatively muted currency reaction to the European Central Bank's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points, as expected.
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Reuters - 1天前

FX options wrap - USD gains and Trump trades are key drivers

BUZZ-FX options wrap - USD gains and Trump trades are key drivers FX option implied volatility remains broadly heavy amid the ongoing lack of FX realised volatility, but the impending U.S. election and the risk of an extended USD recovery maintain demand and premium for the 'Trump trade' . Overnight expiry EUR related implied volatility was the lowest for any ECB policy announcement in 2024 - consistent with the lack of actual volatility in its wake.
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Reuters - 1天前

These FX options are becoming 'the Trump trade'

RPT-BUZZ-COMMENT-These FX options are becoming 'the Trump trade' Repeats with no changes Oct 16 (Reuters) - U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has regained his poll lead over Democratic rival Kamala Harris with only three weeks to go before the U.S. election and it's fuelling demand for options to hedge the risk of a stronger USD rebound.
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Reuters - 2天前

US recap: EUR/USD slips ahead of ECB amid dollar rally

BUZZ-COMMENT-US recap: EUR/USD slips ahead of ECB amid dollar rally Oct 16 (Reuters) - The dollar index rose to a new 10-week high amid greenback buying in the run up to U.S. elections and favorable investor sentiment after upbeat bank earnings, while investors also geared up for U.S data on Thursday including retail sales. The euro fell to a two-month low, sliding below its 200-day moving average ahead of an expected rate cut by the European Central Bank Thursday.
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Reuters - 2天前

FX options wrap - Trump trade, ECB risk, revealing sales

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Trump trade, ECB risk, revealing sales Shorter dated expiry implied volatility in most of the major currency pairs remains under pressure and reflects the lack of current FX realised volatility. That's not expected to change much until the U.S. election, where implied volatility is higher and better supported. Overnight expiry implied volatility remains very low, even in EUR related pairings which now include Thursday's ECB policy announcement .
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Reuters - 2天前

FX options show ECB risk to EUR/USD is at long time low

BUZZ-COMMENT-FX options show ECB risk to EUR/USD is at long time low Oct 16 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank is almost unanimously expected to cut rates by 25bps to 3.25% on Thursday. An increase in related FX option premiums shows the market is not complacent about the potential for increased FX volatility, but expects it to be limited. Overnight options expire on the next working day at 10 a.m.
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Reuters - 2天前

These FX options are becoming 'the Trump trade'

BUZZ-COMMENT-These FX options are becoming 'the Trump trade' Oct 16 (Reuters) - U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has regained his poll lead over Democratic rival Kamala Harris with only three weeks to go before the U.S. election and it's fuelling demand for options to hedge the risk of a stronger USD rebound. USD call options give holders the right to buy the USD at levels that are advantageous to the FX spot rate, for an upfront premium.
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Reuters - 2天前

Sell EUR/JPY, buy GBP/JPY as rate expectations shift?

BUZZ-COMMENT-Sell EUR/JPY, buy GBP/JPY as rate expectations shift? Oct 16 (Reuters) - Recent market moves and shifting central bank expectations suggest EUR/JPY could be a good sell and GBP/JPY potentially a buy. There is now a growing view that the European Central Bank could be more dovish than the U.S. Federal Reserve and in contrast to the still hawkish-leaning Bank of Japan.
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Reuters - 3天前

US recap: EUR/USD on back foot in mixed market

BUZZ-COMMENT-US recap: EUR/USD on back foot in mixed market Oct 15 (Reuters) - The dollar traded mixed Tuesday with the pound gaining ground following a solid U.K. employment report while slumping oil and a weaker yuan weighed on commodity currencies. U.S. Treasury yield curve flattened after the New York Fed's monthly gauge of factory activity unexpectedly fell to negative 11.9 in October from a positive reading a month earlier.
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Reuters - 3天前

Looming risks to yen calm vs euro

BUZZ-COMMENT-Looming risks to yen calm vs euro Policymaker comments may soon shake up recently sedated trade in EUR/JPY. The cross has been orbiting 163 since Oct. 4 amid broad dollar gains and stable interest rate differentials. The relative calm has depressed realized volatility and EUR/JPY options that capture outlier moves. Event risks over the next month, however, may see the cross move out of its 155-164 two - month range.
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Reuters - 3天前

FX options wrap - Pricing says FX is still going nowhere fast

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Pricing says FX is still going nowhere fast Another day of FX consolidation and limited volatility which keeps the pressure on FX option implied volatility . EUR/USD tested below 1.0900 but lacked the impetus needed to excite the FX options market. The ECB is widely expected to cut rates by 25 bps on Thursday, so it would take a surprise hold to reignite related FX volatility.
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Reuters - 3天前

Are options under-pricing US election risk to USD/JPY?

BUZZ-COMMENT-Are options under-pricing US election risk to USD/JPY? Oct 15 (Reuters) - When comparing FX option volatility risk premiums with their fair value measures for expiry dates, which include the U.S. election on November 5, USD/JPY stands out as being potentially under-priced. FX volatility is a key, yet unknown parameter of an FX option premium, so dealers use implied volatility as a stand in.
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Reuters - 4天前

US dollar climbs to 10-week peak; euro, China's yuan fall

FOREX-US dollar climbs to 10-week peak; euro, China's yuan fall Euro falls ahead of ECB meeting, rate cut expected China's fiscal stimulus briefing disappoints investors Bitcoin and ether hit two-week highs Adds new comment, FX table, graphic, updates prices By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss and P.J. Huffstutter NEW YORK, Oct 14 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar touched a 1 0 -week high on Monday in thin trading, extending its weeks-long bullish run s parked by data showing a modestly slowing economy that l
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Reuters - 4天前

US recap: EUR/USD falls as dollar continues climb

BUZZ-COMMENT-US recap: EUR/USD falls as dollar continues climb Oct 14 (Reuters) - The dollar index rose in holiday-thinned trade on Monday, hitting a two-month high as haven currencies retreated, U.S. shares advanced and investors awaited this week's offering of economic data and U.S. corporate earnings. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said more rate cuts likely lie ahead as inflation approaches the U.S.
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Reuters - 4天前

US dollar hits nine-week high; China yuan, euro down

FOREX-US dollar hits nine-week high; China yuan, euro down Recasts, adds new comment, FX table, updates prices; changes dateline, previous SINGAPORE/LONDON Euro falls ahead of ECB meeting, rate cut expected China's fiscal stimulus briefing disappoints investors Bitcoin and ether hit two-week highs By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss, Medha Singh NEW YORK/LONDON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - The U.S.
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Reuters - 4天前

FX options wrap - Nowhere fast, election bid, USD hedge

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Nowhere fast, election bid, USD hedge Shorter term expiry FX option implied volatility remains depressed to highlight a lack of short-term realised volatility expectations, with overnight/next day expiry option premiums hitting their lowest levels since July . Premium/break-even prices taken from overnight expiry implied volatility in EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD, were at/below 25 USD pips on Monday's U.S.
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