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Hedging a Trump victory with FX options

RPT-BUZZ-COMMENT-Hedging a Trump victory with FX options Repeats with no changes Oct 16 (Reuters) - With the U.S. election in just three weeks and former President Donald Trump regaining a lead in the polls, FX option dealers report increased demand for options to hedge the risk of a Trump victory. Societe Generale think AUD/USD would be the most at risk from a Trump win and in a recent client note, are highlighting three trades to hedge that risk.
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Australian dollar bathes in jobs afterglow, helped by China stocks

Australian dollar bathes in jobs afterglow, helped by China stocks By Stella Qiu SYDNEY, Oct 18 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar extended gains on Friday following a solid jobs report while also getting a helping hand from China where stocks rose on the launch of support measures and slightly stronger-than-expected economic growth. Markets have further pared the chance of a rate cut in Australia this year to just 25%, with a first easing not fully priced in until April 2025, after strong U.S.
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Australian dollar gets much needed lift from strong jobs, bond yields rise

Australian dollar gets much needed lift from strong jobs, bond yields rise SYDNEY, Oct 17 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar rebounded from a one-month low and bond yields gained on Thursday after jobs data again blew past expectations, leaving hopes for a year-end rate cut in tatters. However, the Aussie's gains were capped as risk sentiment was undermined a little by a disappointing housing policy briefing in China that sent prices for iron ore - Australia's biggest export to China - down more
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FX options show ECB risk to EUR/USD is at long time low

BUZZ-COMMENT-FX options show ECB risk to EUR/USD is at long time low Oct 16 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank is almost unanimously expected to cut rates by 25bps to 3.25% on Thursday. An increase in related FX option premiums shows the market is not complacent about the potential for increased FX volatility, but expects it to be limited. Overnight options expire on the next working day at 10 a.m.
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Hedging a Trump victory with FX options

BUZZ-COMMENT-Hedging a Trump victory with FX options Oct 16 (Reuters) - With the U.S. election in just three weeks and former President Donald Trump regaining a lead in the polls, FX option dealers report increased demand for options to hedge the risk of a Trump victory. Societe Generale think AUD/USD would be the most at risk from a Trump win and in a recent client note, are highlighting three trades to hedge that risk.
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NZ dlr hits 2-month low as benign inflation strengthens bets on outsized rate cuts

NZ dlr hits 2-month low as benign inflation strengthens bets on outsized rate cuts SYDNEY, Oct 16 (Reuters) - The New Zealand dollar slipped to a two-month low and bonds rallied on Wednesday as soft inflation readings bolstered bets for aggressive monetary easing, which also dragged its Australian counterpart lower. New Zealand's consumer price index(CPI ) rose 0.6% in the third quarter, below forecasts of a 0.7% increase.
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Australian, NZ dollars turn lower as yuan skids to one-month trough

Australian, NZ dollars turn lower as yuan skids to one-month trough SYDNEY, Oct 15 (Reuters) - The Australian and New Zealand dollars struggled to make new ground on Tuesday even as Wall Street soared to a record close, with sentiment still being weighed down by a lack of stimulus measures from China after a slew of lacklustre data. The Aussie AUD=D3 fell 0.2% at $0.6712, having fallen 0.4% overnight to as far as $0.67, the lowest in a month.
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Australia, NZ dollars under pressure as China's fiscal stimulus disappoints

Australia, NZ dollars under pressure as China's fiscal stimulus disappoints SYDNEY, Oct 14 (Reuters) - The Australian and New Zealand dollars fell on Monday after Beijing's fiscal stimulus briefing lacked details and disappointed investors, although a tepid response in Chinese markets likely limited the downside. The Aussie AUD=D3 edged down 0.2% to $0.6736, having finished last week 0.7% lower as shifting U.S.
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Australia, NZ dollars set for a second week of losses, await China stimulus

Australia, NZ dollars set for a second week of losses, await China stimulus SYDNEY, Oct 11 (Reuters) - The Australian and New Zealand dollars are each poised to log a second straight week of declines, with their near-term outlook set to be determined by details of expected fiscal stimulus from Beijing and the impact of that stimulus on commodity prices.
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Australian dollar extends losing streak, kiwi endures rate pain

Australian dollar extends losing streak, kiwi endures rate pain SYDNEY, Oct 10 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar extended its losing streak on Thursday as the lack of China stimulus news and shifting U.S. rate cut expectations turned against it, while the kiwi nursed heavy losses on the odds of even larger rate cuts. The Aussie AUD=D3 held at $0.6716, having lost 0.4% overnight in the fifth straight session of declines which have seen it hit as low as $0.6708 .
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New Zealand dollar hits 7-week low as RBNZ steps up easing

New Zealand dollar hits 7-week low as RBNZ steps up easing SYDNEY, Oct 9 (Reuters) - The New Zealand dollar hit a seven-week low on Wednesday after the central bank stepped up policy easing with a half-point rate cut, sending bond yields lower. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand wrapped up its latest policy meeting by cutting the official cash rate by 50 basis points to 4.75%, after a quarter-point reduction in August.
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Australian dollar struggles as China rally fades, RBA a tad dovish

Australian dollar struggles as China rally fades, RBA a tad dovish SYDNEY, Oct 8 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar fell for a fourth straight session on Tuesday as the nation's central bank sounded slightly dovish and a post-holiday rally in Chinese stocks lost momentum. The kiwi was slightly higher, awaiting a rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday where markets widely expect it to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, even though analysts are somewhat split between a
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Australian dollar set for solid weekly gains on yen, kiwi

Australian dollar set for solid weekly gains on yen, kiwi SYDNEY, Oct 4 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar is headed for solid weekly gains on the Japanese yen and New Zealand's kiwi, although it retreated against the U.S. dollar as strong data there lessened the odds of another outsized Federal Reserve interest rate cut. The Aussie was enjoying the view at 100.5 yen AUDJPY=R , having rallied 2.5% so far this week and cleared a major hurdle at 99.85 yen.
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Australian dollar leaps to 2-mth top on yen, kiwi underwater

Australian dollar leaps to 2-mth top on yen, kiwi underwater By Wayne Cole SYDNEY, Oct 3 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar hit a two-month high on the yen on Thursday as markets scaled back expectations for Japanese rate hikes, while the New Zealand dollar suffered from wagers of more aggressive policy easing at home. The Aussie was up at 101.25 yen AUDJPY= , having jumped 2% overnight to clear resistance around the 100.00 barrier.
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Australia dollar hampered by risk aversion, kiwi by rate calls

Australia dollar hampered by risk aversion, kiwi by rate calls By Wayne Cole SYDNEY, Oct 2 (Reuters) - The Australian and New Zealand dollars had stepped back from recent highs on Wednesday as escalating tensions in the Middle East curbed risk appetite, while the kiwi also struggled with bets for sharply lower interest rates. Sentiment did steady somewhat when Iran said its missile attack on Israel was finished barring further provocation.
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FX fear gauges show a greater risk of EUR/USD losses

BUZZ-COMMENT-FX fear gauges show a greater risk of EUR/USD losses Oct 1 (Reuters) - EUR/USD has been pinned to the 1.11's since trading at a new 13-month high above 1.1200 in late August, but the directional FX risk premium in FX option markets shows a greater risk of EUR/USD setbacks than of extended gains. Risk reversals are options that benefit from FX volatility in a particular direction and will consequently demand a volatility risk premium for related strikes.
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Australian dollar in demand as upbeat data lessens rate risks

Australian dollar in demand as upbeat data lessens rate risks SYDNEY, Oct 1 (Reuters) - The Australian and New Zealand dollars hovered near multi-month highs on Tuesday as upbeat domestic data supported sentiment, while optimism over China's stimulus plans boosted iron ore to three-month peaks. Australian data showed retail sales rebounded 0.7% in August, beating forecasts of 0.4% thanks in part to the warmest August since 1910 bringing forward southern hemisphere spring spending.
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Euro nudges higher; China stimulus boosts Aussie and kiwi

FOREX-Euro nudges higher; China stimulus boosts Aussie and kiwi Updates at 1200 GMT By Tom Westbrook and Alun John SINGAPORE/LONDON, Sept 30 (Reuters) - The euro strengthened on Monday after German inflation data, while commodity currencies rose on hopes for a turnaround in China's economy and the Japanese yen steadied as traders reacted to the new prime minister's call for a snap election.
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Larger FX option strike expiries for the week ahead

BUZZ-COMMENT-Larger FX option strike expiries for the week ahead Sept 27 (Reuters) - The cash hedging of soon-to-expire FX option strikes can have a magnetic effect on FX price action, adding to nearby support/resistance, and there are plenty on Friday and for the week ahead. The biggest EUR/USD strikes are on Monday at 1.1200 on 1.2 billion euros, Tuesday at 1.1080-85 on 1.6 billion euros and 1.1100 on 1.4 billion euros and Wednesday at 1.1025 on 2.2 billion euros, 1.1100 on 1.4 billion euros,
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Australia, NZ dollars energised as China optimism boosts risk, resources

Australia, NZ dollars energised as China optimism boosts risk, resources By Wayne Cole SYDNEY, Sept 27 (Reuters) - The Australian and New Zealand dollars basked near multi-month highs on Friday as hopes for truly potent Chinese stimulus boosted risk assets and commodities. Just the chance of a revival in Chinese demand proved a saviour for iron ore , Australia's single biggest export earner, lifting it above $100 a metric ton and away from lows of $88.40. "The combined weight of the monetary and
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