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FX options wrap - Pricing FX calm before US election storm

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Pricing FX calm before US election storm Price action in FX options reinforces the outlook that there's little to excite FX markets before the U.S. election, but plenty of risks to hedge in its wake. The recent/current lack of FX realised volatility is weighing on implied volatility, especially for options that expire prior to the U.S.
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Cheap USD/JPY options to hedge major event risks

BUZZ-COMMENT-Cheap USD/JPY options to hedge major event risks Oct 18 (Reuters) - A lack of FX realised volatility has reduced the price of USD/JPY option premiums, which are almost screaming value ahead of some major event risks. FX options thrive on FX volatility, which is an unknown quantity but a key parameter for the premium. Dealers therefore use implied volatility, which is basically their best guess.
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Australian dollar bathes in jobs afterglow, helped by China stocks

Australian dollar bathes in jobs afterglow, helped by China stocks By Stella Qiu SYDNEY, Oct 18 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar extended gains on Friday following a solid jobs report while also getting a helping hand from China where stocks rose on the launch of support measures and slightly stronger-than-expected economic growth. Markets have further pared the chance of a rate cut in Australia this year to just 25%, with a first easing not fully priced in until April 2025, after strong U.S.
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US recap: EUR/USD slides after ECB cut, dour outlook

BUZZ-COMMENT-US recap: EUR/USD slides after ECB cut, dour outlook USD/JPY holds above 150 on Goldilocks view AUD/USD -Longs hold onto gains despite US data results Oct 17 (Reuters) - The dollar rose to a fresh 11-week high on Thursday after a batch of economic data showed a U.S. economy that remains resilient. U.S retail sales rose an above-forecast 0.4% in September, weekly jobless claims fell, October’s Philadelphia Fed index beat the median estimate and the NAHB homebuilder index edged up i
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FX options wrap - USD gains and Trump trades are key drivers

BUZZ-FX options wrap - USD gains and Trump trades are key drivers FX option implied volatility remains broadly heavy amid the ongoing lack of FX realised volatility, but the impending U.S. election and the risk of an extended USD recovery maintain demand and premium for the 'Trump trade' . Overnight expiry EUR related implied volatility was the lowest for any ECB policy announcement in 2024 - consistent with the lack of actual volatility in its wake.
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Australian dollar gets much needed lift from strong jobs, bond yields rise

Australian dollar gets much needed lift from strong jobs, bond yields rise SYDNEY, Oct 17 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar rebounded from a one-month low and bond yields gained on Thursday after jobs data again blew past expectations, leaving hopes for a year-end rate cut in tatters. However, the Aussie's gains were capped as risk sentiment was undermined a little by a disappointing housing policy briefing in China that sent prices for iron ore - Australia's biggest export to China - down more
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US recap: EUR/USD slips ahead of ECB amid dollar rally

BUZZ-COMMENT-US recap: EUR/USD slips ahead of ECB amid dollar rally Oct 16 (Reuters) - The dollar index rose to a new 10-week high amid greenback buying in the run up to U.S. elections and favorable investor sentiment after upbeat bank earnings, while investors also geared up for U.S data on Thursday including retail sales. The euro fell to a two-month low, sliding below its 200-day moving average ahead of an expected rate cut by the European Central Bank Thursday.
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FX options wrap - Trump trade, ECB risk, revealing sales

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Trump trade, ECB risk, revealing sales Shorter dated expiry implied volatility in most of the major currency pairs remains under pressure and reflects the lack of current FX realised volatility. That's not expected to change much until the U.S. election, where implied volatility is higher and better supported. Overnight expiry implied volatility remains very low, even in EUR related pairings which now include Thursday's ECB policy announcement .
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NZ dlr hits 2-month low as benign inflation strengthens bets on outsized rate cuts

NZ dlr hits 2-month low as benign inflation strengthens bets on outsized rate cuts SYDNEY, Oct 16 (Reuters) - The New Zealand dollar slipped to a two-month low and bonds rallied on Wednesday as soft inflation readings bolstered bets for aggressive monetary easing, which also dragged its Australian counterpart lower. New Zealand's consumer price index(CPI ) rose 0.6% in the third quarter, below forecasts of a 0.7% increase.
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US recap: EUR/USD on back foot in mixed market

BUZZ-COMMENT-US recap: EUR/USD on back foot in mixed market Oct 15 (Reuters) - The dollar traded mixed Tuesday with the pound gaining ground following a solid U.K. employment report while slumping oil and a weaker yuan weighed on commodity currencies. U.S. Treasury yield curve flattened after the New York Fed's monthly gauge of factory activity unexpectedly fell to negative 11.9 in October from a positive reading a month earlier.
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FX options wrap - Pricing says FX is still going nowhere fast

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Pricing says FX is still going nowhere fast Another day of FX consolidation and limited volatility which keeps the pressure on FX option implied volatility . EUR/USD tested below 1.0900 but lacked the impetus needed to excite the FX options market. The ECB is widely expected to cut rates by 25 bps on Thursday, so it would take a surprise hold to reignite related FX volatility.
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Are options under-pricing US election risk to USD/JPY?

BUZZ-COMMENT-Are options under-pricing US election risk to USD/JPY? Oct 15 (Reuters) - When comparing FX option volatility risk premiums with their fair value measures for expiry dates, which include the U.S. election on November 5, USD/JPY stands out as being potentially under-priced. FX volatility is a key, yet unknown parameter of an FX option premium, so dealers use implied volatility as a stand in.
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Australian, NZ dollars turn lower as yuan skids to one-month trough

Australian, NZ dollars turn lower as yuan skids to one-month trough SYDNEY, Oct 15 (Reuters) - The Australian and New Zealand dollars struggled to make new ground on Tuesday even as Wall Street soared to a record close, with sentiment still being weighed down by a lack of stimulus measures from China after a slew of lacklustre data. The Aussie AUD=D3 fell 0.2% at $0.6712, having fallen 0.4% overnight to as far as $0.67, the lowest in a month.
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US recap: EUR/USD falls as dollar continues climb

BUZZ-COMMENT-US recap: EUR/USD falls as dollar continues climb Oct 14 (Reuters) - The dollar index rose in holiday-thinned trade on Monday, hitting a two-month high as haven currencies retreated, U.S. shares advanced and investors awaited this week's offering of economic data and U.S. corporate earnings. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said more rate cuts likely lie ahead as inflation approaches the U.S.
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FX options wrap - Nowhere fast, election bid, USD hedge

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Nowhere fast, election bid, USD hedge Shorter term expiry FX option implied volatility remains depressed to highlight a lack of short-term realised volatility expectations, with overnight/next day expiry option premiums hitting their lowest levels since July . Premium/break-even prices taken from overnight expiry implied volatility in EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD, were at/below 25 USD pips on Monday's U.S.
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Australia, NZ dollars under pressure as China's fiscal stimulus disappoints

Australia, NZ dollars under pressure as China's fiscal stimulus disappoints SYDNEY, Oct 14 (Reuters) - The Australian and New Zealand dollars fell on Monday after Beijing's fiscal stimulus briefing lacked details and disappointed investors, although a tepid response in Chinese markets likely limited the downside. The Aussie AUD=D3 edged down 0.2% to $0.6736, having finished last week 0.7% lower as shifting U.S.
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US recap: EUR/USD pauses slide as dollar stalls after US data

BUZZ-COMMENT-US recap: EUR/USD pauses slide as dollar stalls after US data Oct 11 (Reuters) - The dollar index eased Friday amid profit-taking after a nine-day advance and lower short-term Treasury yields following a batch of soft U.S. data. U.S. producer prices were unchanged in September on a monthly basis and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for October unexpectedly fell.
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FX options wrap - Balancing current FX with impending risks

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Balancing current FX with impending risks The FX volatility upon which FX options thrive has been lacking and leaves dealers to manage time decay costs whilst retaining protection from impending risks. This scenario is reflected in FX option premium and trade flows. The USD has staged a recovery from its late September lows as the extent of the U.S.
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Are options under-pricing US election risk to USD/JPY?

BUZZ-COMMENT-Are options under-pricing US election risk to USD/JPY? Oct 11 (Reuters) - When comparing FX option volatility risk premiums with their fair value measures for expiry dates, which include the U.S. election on November 5, USD/JPY stands out as being potentially under-priced. FX volatility is a key, yet unknown parameter of an FX option premium, so dealers use implied volatility as a stand in.
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Stand out G10 FX option strike expiries next week

BUZZ-COMMENT-Stand out G10 FX option strike expiries next week Oct 11 (Reuters) - The cash hedging of soon-to-expire FX option strikes can bolster nearby support and resistance levels, whilst having a magnetic effect on FX price action, and there are plenty to note on Friday and the week ahead. The biggest nearby EUR/USD strikes on Monday are at 1.0945-50 on 1.5 billion euros, Tuesday at 1.1000 on 3.3 billion euros, Wednesday at 1.0950-55 on 2.7 billion euros and on Thursday between 1.0975-90 on
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