It's wise not to expect EUR/USD to do much in future
Oct 18 (Reuters) -This year's EUR/USD range is smaller than last year's which was the second smallest on record. Following the failed gamble to drive a break on the upside, it's wise not to expect EUR/USD to do much in future.
Traders have been here before. They tried even harder last year to force a break and that failed too. Bets on a rise were much bigger, but EUR/USD slumped from 1.1276 to 1.0448. They tried again but EUR/USD, which shot higher to 1.1139 last December, dropped to 1.0601 in April this year.
Unperturbed by their failure, speculators once again gambled that EUR/USD will break its shackles and drove a rally to 1.1214, but this too has failed with the pair dropping to 1.0811.
Traders are getting less bang for their buck, and like other gamblers, the repeated failures suggest most of them are losing.
Another attempt to force a break this year is unlikely. Without a significant change in fundamentals that support a sustained move in one direction, EUR/USD will may remain stuck.
Those hedging, who had an easier job this year thanks to the narrowing range, might have an easier job next year, though should a break occur, the follow through will probably happen rapidly and go far.
That is the less likely scenario, representing the long odds that gamblers are prone to take and lose. It's wiser to expect the status quo to hold and bookmakers to get richer.
Further commentary by same author - Speculators praying for Japanese FX intervention nL1N3LU08M
For more click on FXBUZ
EURUSD and betting https://tmsnrt.rs/4f9qd9f
(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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