Big retracement but sterling won't roll over
Oct 18 (Reuters) -A big pullback from September's 1.3434 significant high and the weight remains with the sellers, but a buy-on-dips pattern highlights sterling demand in and around the 1.3000 level versus the dollar.
This pattern of investor demand shows up well on the weekly chart with long lower candlestick shadows for weeks ending Sept. 13 and Oct. 11.
The advantage is with the bears and there is a risk of a blowout to the mid-1.28s. However, key support points, weekly Ichimoku Kijun line and 200-week moving average, currently 1.2865 and 1.2844 respectively, could put up a fight and reverse sterling's course. A 50% Fibonacci retracement level taken off the 1.2299-1.3434 Apr-Sept climb is also in the support mix at 1.2867.
The shorter-term price action has shown a rebound this week from levels just ahead of support. The daily Ichimoku cloud base is at 1.2967 and the 100-day moving average just below at 1.2960. The rebound from Thursday's 1.2975 low has nudged above the daily Ichimoku cloud top and the 10-day moving average, but sterling has failed to hold the break. A close above these resistance points needed to set up a further recovery next week.
For more click on FXBUZ
GBP/USD weekly candle chart: https://tmsnrt.rs/3BIiPDl
(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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