AUD downside risks remain despite strong jobs print
Oct 17 (Reuters) -Despite a strong Aussie jobs report, AUD/USD has struggled to sustain its bounce with the pair seeing a fleeting move above 0.67. This highlights that shorts continue to hold the upper hand, which will likely remain the case as we lead up to the U.S. presidential election.
Heading into the release, the view was that the pair faced asymmetrical risks on the downside, given the small risk premium attached to RBA easing by year-end. With only 10-12bps of cuts priced in over the remaining two meetings prior to the jobs data – which has now dropped to 6bps – the limit to how much easing could be unwound meant the benefit to AUD was likely to be small on a topside surprise.
Instead, the needle mover for RBA pricing will be the Q3 CPI release (Oct 30) amid the backdrop of softer inflation prints out of Canada, New Zealand and the UK.
That said, as the U.S. election draws closer, there has been a growing focus on hedging for tariff risks, which in turn has meant that the RBA is becoming a secondary driver for the currency. Thus, risks to the AUD remain skewed to the downside with resistance residing at 0.6725-30, which marks the 200-day SMA/EMA.
For more click on FXBUZ
AUDUSD 10min chart https://tmsnrt.rs/4037x6U
(Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)
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