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Week Ahead – BoC to speed up rate cuts; flash PMIs eyed for growth clues

Bank of Canada meets; may opt for bigger 50-bps cutOctober flash PMIs to set the mood amid some growth concernsA relatively quiet week otherwise, with mostly second-tier releasesBoC to likely cut by half a pointExpectations that the Bank of Canada will cut rates by 50 basis points at its October meeting firmed up after the latest CPI data. Nevertheless, markets are not fully convinced of an outsized move, hence, there is a little bit of uncertainty heading into Wednesday’s decision by Canada��
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Technical Analysis – US dollar index retreats after strong bullish wave

US dollar index finds resistance at 200-day SMAStochastic and RSI edge downThe US dollar index is easing somewhat after the aggressive buying interest that started back in September 27. The price added almost 4% and recorded a fresh more-than-two-month high around 103.67, finding resistance at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA).If the market overcomes the latter obstacle could endorse the bullish pressure towards the 104.50 resistance.
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Technical Analysis – Ethereum fails to record a higher high

Cryptocurrencies are mostly in demand this weekEthereum rallies but fails to overcome the 2,667 levelMomentum indicators are mostly bullishFollowing Monday’s strong upleg, ethereum is experiencing a few quiet sessions by trading in a tight range. It is in the green today, but it remains stuck below the mid-September 2021 low of 2,667. Contrary to bitcoin’s strong performance and despite the positive newsflow, ethereum has failed to surpass the late-September peak, and hence continues to trad
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US 100 index maintains buying interestBulls need a close above 20,550-20,680Bears wait below 20,000   The US 100 index continues to hover above the key 20,000 level, following a pullback from a three-month high of 20,499 on Monday, signaling that buying interest is still alive.Technical indicators suggest potential for further gains, with the RSI showing signs of rebound and stochastic oscillators looking for an upside reversal.
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Daily Comment – Strong US data keep the dollar in demand

 ECB cuts rate, keeps door wide open to a December moveEuro suffers as US retail sales surprise on the upsideFocus today is on Fedspeak and in particular Fed’s BosticGold surpasses $2,700 as China announces further measuresECB announces rate cut, prepares for a December moveThe euro suffered another weak session yesterday, with the euro/dollar pair dropping below the key 200-day simple moving average and euro/pound fully erasing the recent UK CPI-induced correction.
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Technical Analysis – EURGBP goes back to a downtrend

EURGBP charts new 2 ½-year low after UK retail sales beat estimates Short-term bias is skewed to the downside, but price near familiar support line EURGBP plunged to a new 2½-year low of 0.8293, weighed by upbeat UK retail sales at 4.0% y/y and a dovish ECB policy stance, which raised concerns about the eurozone's growth.The outlook appears grim: the RSI is declining in bearish territory, and the MACD has crossed below its signal line.
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Technical Analysis – USDCHF overcomes medium-term uptrend line

USDCHF rebounds off 0.840020- and 50-day SMA post bullish crossoverMACD and RSI still above their mid-levelsUSDCHF has charged through its medium-term descending trend line near 0.8650 after the strong pullback from the 0.8400 round number. The momentum indicators point to a bullish bias in the near term, but there is also a risk of a negative correction.
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Tech earnings take center stage – Stock Markets

Magnificent seven start to report earnings as Wall Street hovers near all-time highQ3 earnings from Netflix, Tesla, and Amazon are on the weekly agendaWall Street has been on fire recently, reaching new heights as the earnings season for Q3 kicked off with a bang, with investors cheering on bank profit beats and China's fresh fiscal spending announcement fueling more optimism across the board.Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co reported record earnings, helping to cushion the blow from ASM
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Technical Analysis – EURUSD selloff accelerates

Downleg in EURUSD continues, erases the summer rallyIt has easily overcome the key 200-day SMAMomentum indicators are representative of the decline's strengthEURUSD is trading aggressively lower today on the back of the ECB announcing another rate cut and the US retail sales report producing another upside surprise. EURUSD has easily broken below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), almost entirely erasing the summer rally that pushed EURUSD to a 14-month high at 1.1213.The strength of
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Quick Brief - US retail sales give dollar bulls another shot in the arm

Retail sales in the US rise by more than expected in SeptemberInitial jobless claims are also better than expectedUS dollar edges higher after the dataIt’s a hat-trick of stronger-than-expected data for the US economy as retail sales, weekly jobless claims and the Philly Fed manufacturing index all beat their forecasts on Thursday. Retail sales rose by 0.4% m/m in September, topping estimates of 0.3% and accelerating from the prior 0.1% reading.
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Quick Brief – ECB cut rates by 25 bps as expected

ECB’s announcement has no strong impact on the marketEuro continues the selling interestSeptember inflation revised down to 1.7% y/yThe ECB cut its interest rates by 25 bps in October as forecasted following similar moves in September and June. The ECB adjusted three different rates: 3.25% for the deposit facility, 3.4% for the main refinancing operations, and 3.65% for the marginal lending facility.A more recent evaluation of inflation has shown that disinflation is making positive progre
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Midweek Technical Look – EURJPY, USDCAD, Gold

EURJPY in a wait-and-see mode ahead of ECB's rate decisionUSDCAD looks overbought after fast rally to two-month highGold starts a new bullish wave. Will it hit a new record high?
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Technical Analysis – WTI crude oil eases below downtrend line

WTI crude oil weakens negative momentumStochastic tries to head higherWTI crude oil futures continue to decline after encountering strong pushback at the 78.75 resistance and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). The commodity returned beneath the short-term downtrend line, endorsing the bearish outlook.The technical oscillators show some contradicting signs in the near term.
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Daily Comment – US dollar could benefit from an unexciting ECB meeting

ECB meets but unlikely to reverse euro’s recent trendBoth the dollar and US stocks are in a good moodNetflix reports today after TSMC's massive profit jumpGold and bitcoin in demand, oil craves a bullish catalystEuro's suffering continues as ECB meetsThe euro remains on the back foot as it continues to underperform the dollar. The pair has dropped to the lowest level since August 2 with October shaping up to be the weakest month for euro/dollar since May 2023. This dollar outperformanc
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Technical Analysis – EURUSD dives beneath significant levels, losing 3%

EURUSD continues the sell-offImmediate support at medium-term uptrend lineStochastic edges lower in oversold areaEURUSD is experiencing more losses a few hours ahead of the ECB interest rate decision, sending the market beneath the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 1.0870 resistance.Technically, the stochastic oscillator is extending its negative momentum in the oversold zone creating a bearish crossover within its %K and %D lines.
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Wall Street greets Q3 earnings season with record highs – Stock Markets

Shares on Wall Street extend record streak as earnings get into full swingBut trading remains choppy amid elections, geopolitical and earnings risksAnother record highThe S&P 500 notched up its 46th record close of the year on Monday, sealing a positive start to the week as the new earnings season slowly heats up. Initial forecasts for Q3 put the earnings growth rate at 4.1%, but that figure could well rise as 79% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported so far have beaten their earni
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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD retests 1.3000 key level

GBPUSD remains in ascending channelStochastic and RSI in neutral-to-negative momentumGBPUSD has been in a bearish corrective mode during the last three weeks, diving beneath the 20- and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs).Entering the 1.3000 area has been a struggle over the past five days, and there might be another tough obstacle near the medium-term uptrend line at 1.2950 with the technical indicators showing some neutral-to-bearish signs.
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Cryptos rally but outlook remains clouded – Crypto News

Cryptos trade higher, driven by US equitiesSpot ETFs inflow confirm investors’ strong appetiteUS pre-election rhetoric supports cryptosBitcoin breaks above its recent trading range Cryptocurrencies are in demand again The cryptocurrency market is enjoying a rather strong week with bitcoin climbing to the highest level since late July and trading around 35% higher from the August 5 trough. The current move comes amidst a mixed environment with the markets experiencing a strong dollar, which
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Gold surpasses previous top of 2,673MACD and RSI extend bullish structureGold prices are moving higher again today after bouncing off the 2,600 round number with the potential to hit the all-time high of 2,685.51. In the meantime, the momentum indicators are supportive of this upleg. The RSI is moving higher, a tad below the 70 level. More importantly, the MACD oscillator has managed to edge above its trigger line while holding above the zero level.Should the bulls still feel thirsty, they woul
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Daily Comment – Stocks under pressure by chipmakers, pound slips on CPI drop

Chip stocks hit by selloff after ASML cuts 2025 guidanceDollar stretches gains as pound and kiwi fall on lower inflationOil steadier amid ongoing ME drama, gold heads towards fresh recordChip and AI stocks take a diveEquity markets suffered a setback on Tuesday after Dutch semiconductor giant, ASML, sparked panic about the demand outlook for chips when it accidentally published its earnings report a day early.
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